A modeling approach of return and volatility of structured investment products with caps and floors
PDF (Español (España))
HTML (Español (España))
XML (Español (España))
EPUB (Español (España))

Keywords

individual retirement accounts
Puerto Rico Investment Companies Act
passive investing
stock market
bond market

How to Cite

He, J., & Rivera, R. (2024). A modeling approach of return and volatility of structured investment products with caps and floors. Fórum Empresarial, 28(2), 57–73. https://doi.org/10.33801/fe.v28i2.21422

Abstract

A popular investment structured product in Puerto Rico is the stock markettied Individual Retirement Account (IRA), which offers some stock market growth while protecting the principal. The performance of these retirement strategies has yet to be studied. This work examines the expected return and risk of Puerto Rico stock market IRAs (PRIRAs) and compares their statistical properties with other investment instruments after tax. We propose a parametric modeling approach for structured products and apply it to PRIRAs. Our method first estimates the conditional expected return (and variance) of PRIRA assets from which we extract marginal moments through the Law of Iterated Expectation. Our results indicate that PRIRAs underperform against investing directly in the stock market while carrying substantial risk. PRIRAs may be reasonable for some risk-averse investors due to their principal protection and tax deferral.

https://doi.org/10.33801/fe.v28i2.21422
PDF (Español (España))
HTML (Español (España))
XML (Español (España))
EPUB (Español (España))

References

Afik, Z., Hadad, E., & Yosef, R. (2023). A guaranteed-return structured product as an investment risk-hedging instrument in pension savings plans. Risks, 11(6), 107. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11060107

Austin, A. (2016). Puerto Rico’s current fiscal challenges. Congressional Research Service. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc980459/

Blundell-Wignall, A. (2007). An overview of hedge funds and structured products: issues in leverage and risk. Financial Market Trends, 2007(1), 37–57. https://doi.org/10.1787/16096886

Bordalo, P., Gennaioli, N., & Shleifer, A. (2016). Competition for attention. Review of Economic Studies, 83(2), 481–513. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv048

Castro-González, K. C. (2014). Financial literacy and retirement planning: evidence from Puerto Rico. Global Journal of Business Research, 8(1), 87–98. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2323594

Célérier, C., & Vallée, B. (2017). Catering to investors through security design: headline rate and complexity. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(3), 1469–1508. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx007

Damodaran, A. (2024). Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current. http://people.stern.nyu.edu/ adamodar /New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSPX.html

Deng, G., Dulaney, T., Husson, T., & McCann, C. J. (2013). Structured certificates of deposit: introduction and valuation. SSRN Electronic Journal, 23(3), 219–237. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2303718

He, J., & Rivera, R. (2023). A modeling approach of return and volatility of structured investment products with caps and floors. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.06282

Lugo, O., & Rivera, R. (2023). A closer look at indirect causes of death after Hurricane Maria using a semiparametric model. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 17, e528. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2023.165

Malkiel, B. G. (2016). A random walk down Wall Street: the timetested strategy for successful investing. W.W. Norton & Company.

McCarthy, J. E., & Tower, E. (2021). Static Indexing Beats Tactical Asset Allocation. The Journal of Index Investing, 11-12 (4-1), 41–52. https://doi.org/10.3905.jii.2021.1.100

Rivera, R. (2016). A dynamic linear model to forecast hotel registrations in Puerto Rico using Google Trends data. Tourism Management, 57, 12–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. tourman.2016.04.008

Rivera, R., & Rolke, W. (2019). Modeling excess deaths after a natural disaster with application to Hurricane Maria. Statistics in Medicine, 38(23), 4545–4554. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8314

Rivera, R., & Rosenbaum, J. (2020). Racial disparities in police stops in U.S. cities. Significance, 17(4), 4–5. https://doi.org/10.1111/17409713.01412

Rivera, R., Rosenbaum, J. E., & Quispe, W. (2020). Excess mortality in the United States during the first three months of the covid-19 pandemic. Epidemiology & Infection, 148, e264. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268820002617

Rivera, R. (2020). Principles of managerial statistics and data science. John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/ 9781119486473

Rivera, R., Marazzi, M., & Torres-Saavedra, P. A. (2019). Incorporating open data into introductory courses in statistics. Journal of Statistics Education, 27(3), 198–207. https://doi.org/10.1080/10691898.2019.1669506

Rosenbaum, J. E., Stillo, M., Graves, N., & Rivera, R. (2021). Timeliness of provisional United States mortality data releases during the covid-19 pandemic: delays associated with electronic death registration system and weekly mortality. Journal of Public Health Policy, 42, 536–549. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41271-021-00309-7

Sharpe, W. F. (1966). Mutual fund performance. The Journal of Business, 39(1), 119–138.

Sushko, V., & Turner, G. (2018). The implications of passive investing for securities markets. BIS Quarterly Review, 113– 131. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3139242

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Copyright (c) 2024 Jiaer He, Roberto Rivera

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.